Florida race pits incumbency against anti-Bush feeling
Florida race pits incumbency against anti-Bush feeling
By Caroline Daniel
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Published: August 4 2006 17:26 | Last updated: August 4 2006 17:26
Clay Shaw has all the advantages of a political incumbent. Over 26 years in the House of Representatives he has forged a reputation as a respected moderate Republican, driving welfare reform and pushing an $8bn restoration of the Everglades. After a tight race in 2000 his Florida district was re-mapped to make it safer.
Such advantages used to be enough. In 1998 the House re-election rate of those seeking another term was 98 per cent. In 2002 it was 96 per cent. This year, however, even incumbents could suffer if the election becomes a national referendum on President George W. Bush’s record and on disaffection with Congress.
The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan analysis of US electoral politics, identifies Mr Shaw’s 22nd congressional district as one of the 15 most competitive Republican-held seats. In a sign of how seriously both parties take the seat, it is set to be the costliest House race. Mr Shaw has raised $3.2m (£1.7m, €2.5m), including $1.3m in the last three months alone, more than any other House Republican.
Ron Klein, his Democratic opponent and a state senator, is not far behind, with $2.6m. “Incumbents can accumulate large amounts of money and use taxpayers’ dollars to support their position. But in this race and this year, incumbency may not be all it is cracked up to be. People may be looking for change,” he says.
That message is at the heart of the Democrats’ strategy to tie Mr Shaw to Mr Bush, citing the fact he has voted with the president 90 per cent of the time.
Mr Shaw, a soft-spoken 67-year-old, has not shunned photo opportunities with Mr Bush. On Monday he sat in the front row on a sweltering day in the port of Miami as the president spoke to the Coast Guards. Mr Bush grinned at him and said, “I’m proud you’re here.”
Yet Mr Shaw prefers to run on his own legislative record. He barely mentions Iraq, and is quick to identify areas where he has differed from the president. “My opponent says I’m a rubber stamp for Bush. It’s an invention. I voted to overturn the veto on stem cell research.” Although he backs free trade he disagreed with Mr Bush’s approval of Dubai Ports World taking control of the Miami port. He also differs on immigration, favouring the tougher House bill over a complex guest worker programme.
Immigration was a key theme of a low-key speech at the Deer Creek Country Club on Tuesday, a lush golf course between Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. Mr Shaw told Rotary Club members, “If you look around this golf course you would find that most of the workers are from Latin America, and most of them are illegal. Just as we are addicted to gasoline, we are also addicted to foreign labour.”
The 22nd district was the hub of the 2000 presidential ballot recount, when Mr Shaw squeaked through by 559 votes. But in 2002, his prospects were eased by a re-mapping, led by Republicans, that removed some of the strongest Democratic areas. The district is about 90 per cent white, affluent and with a large Jewish community.
Republicans remain confident. Mr Shaw was re-elected in 2002 and 2004 with more than 60 per cent of the vote. “It is not as close as people make out. Clay has always polled above the president and above the governor. They go on his coat-tails,” says Larry Casey, his campaign manager.
By Caroline Daniel
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Published: August 4 2006 17:26 | Last updated: August 4 2006 17:26
Clay Shaw has all the advantages of a political incumbent. Over 26 years in the House of Representatives he has forged a reputation as a respected moderate Republican, driving welfare reform and pushing an $8bn restoration of the Everglades. After a tight race in 2000 his Florida district was re-mapped to make it safer.
Such advantages used to be enough. In 1998 the House re-election rate of those seeking another term was 98 per cent. In 2002 it was 96 per cent. This year, however, even incumbents could suffer if the election becomes a national referendum on President George W. Bush’s record and on disaffection with Congress.
The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan analysis of US electoral politics, identifies Mr Shaw’s 22nd congressional district as one of the 15 most competitive Republican-held seats. In a sign of how seriously both parties take the seat, it is set to be the costliest House race. Mr Shaw has raised $3.2m (£1.7m, €2.5m), including $1.3m in the last three months alone, more than any other House Republican.
Ron Klein, his Democratic opponent and a state senator, is not far behind, with $2.6m. “Incumbents can accumulate large amounts of money and use taxpayers’ dollars to support their position. But in this race and this year, incumbency may not be all it is cracked up to be. People may be looking for change,” he says.
That message is at the heart of the Democrats’ strategy to tie Mr Shaw to Mr Bush, citing the fact he has voted with the president 90 per cent of the time.
Mr Shaw, a soft-spoken 67-year-old, has not shunned photo opportunities with Mr Bush. On Monday he sat in the front row on a sweltering day in the port of Miami as the president spoke to the Coast Guards. Mr Bush grinned at him and said, “I’m proud you’re here.”
Yet Mr Shaw prefers to run on his own legislative record. He barely mentions Iraq, and is quick to identify areas where he has differed from the president. “My opponent says I’m a rubber stamp for Bush. It’s an invention. I voted to overturn the veto on stem cell research.” Although he backs free trade he disagreed with Mr Bush’s approval of Dubai Ports World taking control of the Miami port. He also differs on immigration, favouring the tougher House bill over a complex guest worker programme.
Immigration was a key theme of a low-key speech at the Deer Creek Country Club on Tuesday, a lush golf course between Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. Mr Shaw told Rotary Club members, “If you look around this golf course you would find that most of the workers are from Latin America, and most of them are illegal. Just as we are addicted to gasoline, we are also addicted to foreign labour.”
The 22nd district was the hub of the 2000 presidential ballot recount, when Mr Shaw squeaked through by 559 votes. But in 2002, his prospects were eased by a re-mapping, led by Republicans, that removed some of the strongest Democratic areas. The district is about 90 per cent white, affluent and with a large Jewish community.
Republicans remain confident. Mr Shaw was re-elected in 2002 and 2004 with more than 60 per cent of the vote. “It is not as close as people make out. Clay has always polled above the president and above the governor. They go on his coat-tails,” says Larry Casey, his campaign manager.
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