Generation gap marks US views on Cuba’s future
Generation gap marks US views on Cuba’s future
By Andrew Ward
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Published: August 4 2006 16:21 | Last updated: August 4 2006 16:21
Hundreds of Cuban-Americans took to the streets of Miami’s Little Havana this week to celebrate news that Cuban President Fidel Castro had temporarily ceded power to his brother because of ill health.
The carnival scenes reflected hope among south Florida’s 800,000-strong Cuban-American population that communist rule over the island could be nearing an end after 47 years.
But, while most Cuban-Americans oppose Mr Castro, there are divisions within the community about US policy towards Cuba and nervousness about the impact that an upheaval in Havana would have on south Florida.
“There is a widespread misconception that the Cuban-American community is homogeneous,” says Brian Latell, a former Cuba specialist for the CIA and author of the book After Fidel. “There are still some vocal hardliners but the majority is increasingly moderate.”
“The first wave of immigrants brought with them the personal scars of revolution and the pain of exile,” says Luis Martinez Fernandez, professor of Latin American studies at the University of Central Florida. “But the younger generations are far less political.”
Hardliners view Mr Castro’s deteriorating health as an opportunity for the US to tighten the screws of its economic embargo and provide aid to dissidents with the aim of accelerating regime change. But opinion polls show that many younger Cuban-Americans favour a loosening of the embargo and an increase in diplomatic engagement to encourage gradual change.
The softening in attitudes has political implications because the Republican party draws much of its strength in Florida from Cuban-American support for its uncompromising approach towards the Castro regime.
Cuban-American votes in Florida were crucial to President George W. Bush’s election victory in 2000.
But polling data showed a sharp drop in support for Mr Bush in some Cuban-dominated districts of Miami in 2004. “Cuban-Americans can no longer be taken for granted by the Republicans,” says Mr Fernandez.
Florida politicians have lined up this week to make the obligatory calls for change in Havana, but their statements have been laced with caution, aware of the potential for chaos if Mr Castro died or lost power.
“I think it’s a moment for us to just express our desire for change and our openness to those voices of change. But I think anything beyond that is premature,” said Mel Martinez, the state’s Cuban-born Republican senator. “I think we need to see how events unfold within Cuba.”
Mr Fernandez says that, for all the hostile rhetoric towards his regime, politicians understand that Mr Castro has provided valuable stability in the US backyard. “Before Castro the island had been a source of instability in the region and it could become so again after he goes,” he says.
Many analysts predict an influx of Cuban refugees across the 90-mile Straits of Florida should the island descend into violence. Other possible scenarios include a flotilla of exiles sailing in the opposite direction to pick up relatives or return home.
But Mr Fernandez says that, provided violence is avoided, the predictions of mass boatlifts would probably prove unfounded. “Why would people leave at the moment when there is hope of change for the better?” he asks.
Mr Latell is equally sceptical about the prospect of thousands of exiles wanting to return. “Most Cuban-Americans now see the US as home,” he says.
Asked whether he would consider returning, Mr Martinez said people should not to underestimate the emotional pull felt by Cuban-Americans towards the island: “I have always said that I would go back to Cuba when I could speak freely in the town square of the little city where I grew up and not feel persecuted for doing that.”
By Andrew Ward
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Published: August 4 2006 16:21 | Last updated: August 4 2006 16:21
Hundreds of Cuban-Americans took to the streets of Miami’s Little Havana this week to celebrate news that Cuban President Fidel Castro had temporarily ceded power to his brother because of ill health.
The carnival scenes reflected hope among south Florida’s 800,000-strong Cuban-American population that communist rule over the island could be nearing an end after 47 years.
But, while most Cuban-Americans oppose Mr Castro, there are divisions within the community about US policy towards Cuba and nervousness about the impact that an upheaval in Havana would have on south Florida.
“There is a widespread misconception that the Cuban-American community is homogeneous,” says Brian Latell, a former Cuba specialist for the CIA and author of the book After Fidel. “There are still some vocal hardliners but the majority is increasingly moderate.”
“The first wave of immigrants brought with them the personal scars of revolution and the pain of exile,” says Luis Martinez Fernandez, professor of Latin American studies at the University of Central Florida. “But the younger generations are far less political.”
Hardliners view Mr Castro’s deteriorating health as an opportunity for the US to tighten the screws of its economic embargo and provide aid to dissidents with the aim of accelerating regime change. But opinion polls show that many younger Cuban-Americans favour a loosening of the embargo and an increase in diplomatic engagement to encourage gradual change.
The softening in attitudes has political implications because the Republican party draws much of its strength in Florida from Cuban-American support for its uncompromising approach towards the Castro regime.
Cuban-American votes in Florida were crucial to President George W. Bush’s election victory in 2000.
But polling data showed a sharp drop in support for Mr Bush in some Cuban-dominated districts of Miami in 2004. “Cuban-Americans can no longer be taken for granted by the Republicans,” says Mr Fernandez.
Florida politicians have lined up this week to make the obligatory calls for change in Havana, but their statements have been laced with caution, aware of the potential for chaos if Mr Castro died or lost power.
“I think it’s a moment for us to just express our desire for change and our openness to those voices of change. But I think anything beyond that is premature,” said Mel Martinez, the state’s Cuban-born Republican senator. “I think we need to see how events unfold within Cuba.”
Mr Fernandez says that, for all the hostile rhetoric towards his regime, politicians understand that Mr Castro has provided valuable stability in the US backyard. “Before Castro the island had been a source of instability in the region and it could become so again after he goes,” he says.
Many analysts predict an influx of Cuban refugees across the 90-mile Straits of Florida should the island descend into violence. Other possible scenarios include a flotilla of exiles sailing in the opposite direction to pick up relatives or return home.
But Mr Fernandez says that, provided violence is avoided, the predictions of mass boatlifts would probably prove unfounded. “Why would people leave at the moment when there is hope of change for the better?” he asks.
Mr Latell is equally sceptical about the prospect of thousands of exiles wanting to return. “Most Cuban-Americans now see the US as home,” he says.
Asked whether he would consider returning, Mr Martinez said people should not to underestimate the emotional pull felt by Cuban-Americans towards the island: “I have always said that I would go back to Cuba when I could speak freely in the town square of the little city where I grew up and not feel persecuted for doing that.”
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